Friday, August 26, 2011

Shadow Inventory - Not a Boiler Plate Call to Arms

As I have been illustrating for some time now, real estate is a local market driven industry.  While on a national scale, the signs are strongly indicating that a flood of new foreclosure properties are about to hit the market, Sellers should rely on local market data as their primary resource for decision making with respect to the sale of their home.  I would urge Sellers to obtain current market data indicating recent sales activity in their respective communities.  See what the current price range per square foot is on like homes within your community, then look at the homes that have gone "pending" (under contract) to interpret the trend as stable, appreciating or depreciating.  Then take a look at the total number of homes you are competing against month over month.  Are there more or less?  That should give you an indication of the supply and demand component of the equation.  Depending on your findings and the circumstances affecting your urgency to sell, you may need to price your home within the estimated per square foot value range or perhaps below it to attract the greatest number of potential buyers.  The higher the price per square foot, the less likely you are to attract buyers.  To price your home above the value range will likely guarantee that you will enjoy the comforts of your home longer than you might anticipate.  Buyers are looking for extraordinary value, and an experienced and qualified Realtor will know how to effectively showcase your home

The illustration below depicts the national picture, but it may not representative of your community.

The areas consisting of Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, The Roads/Brickell Corridor and surrounding communities make up our Area 41.  Here is a snapshot of the last 15 months of unit sales activity in single family homes.  There has been asteady decline in the number of available homes (supply), yet pending and closed sales show about 3.47 months of inventory.  If a normal market holds has about 6-7 months of inventory, then this market is on steroids! 

This will change as distressed properties are fairly likely to appear.  However, this market is sufficiently strong to absorb a significant number of distressed properties before it can be called a distressed community.



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