All I Want for Christmas is Mortgage Principal Reduction?

Realty Times - Housing Answer: Principal Reduction?

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Copyright 2011 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Homes Are Selling Across The Country, and Here's Why...

Homes Are Selling Across The Country, and Here's Why...

We started to see problems with transactions as early as July 2005, but prices continued to climb until about February 2006 in South Florida, which essentially represents the peak in our market.  According to Case Shiller, this is where average prices are now in proportion to then.  With affordability at an all time high due to home prices and low interest rates, whoever isn't convinced that now is the best time in recent history to buy a home is allowing the media to steal away your greatest opportunity for homeownership.

Common Sense Isn’t Common Practice

It used to be that there was logic applied in the world of mortgage lending. An appraiser determined the value of a home by the axiom, “what a reasonable buyer would pay a reasonable seller”. An underwriter weighed the plusses and minuses of a file (after analyzing the income, the assets, the credit profile and the appraisal) and made a judgment call based on their experience.

Loans with sizable down payments used to be more flexible with how income was documented or what quality of credit was required. Even the decision of what made up “good credit” has been reduced to a FICO score. Determining the risk of a loan affected its approval or denial. Further, loans deemed riskier were given less favorable terms (higher rates and/or costs or larger down payments).

But today, everyone has tried to quantify everything and put everything into a matrix. Credit scores are numerical, and the number determines eligibility and cost. Gone is the concept of explaining why you have defects in your credit. We don’t care why, we just look at your score. Appraisers now are being scored and their data being scrutinized to a level most would find mind-boggling. Amenities that make a home worth more for a particular buyer (like a pool or upgraded basement) are virtually ignored. Underwriters have primarily become fact-checkers and quality control as a computer software program underwrites the vast majority of mortgages today.

Gone is common sense. It has been replaced by numerical formulas and a cover-my-behind, justify-everything-with-data mentality. Basically, the pendulum has swung too far. It used to be that lending was too easy (see the subprime debacle), but now we have eliminated too much of the human element. We need common sense back.

People who have saved 30% for a down payment know what they can afford monthly. Don’t they?

People who had a medical challenge two years ago that is not likely to reappear should not have a twenty year credit history destroyed. Should they?

People aren’t likely to overpay for a home with so much inventory and all the media exposure about falling prices. Are they?

Bring back some common sense when we need it most!

Real Estate As a Hedge Against Inflation (from KCMBlog.com)

Real Estate as a Hedge against Inflation

We haven’t heard a lot about inflation recently. However, prices have started to creep upward over the last year. As examples, here are a few categories that increased from November 2010 to November 2011:

• Food at home – up 6.2%
• Housing fuels and utilities – up 3.5%
• Transportation – up 9.2%

Today, we want to address the issue of inflation and the advantages of owning real estate. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) took an historic look at the impact of inflation. Here are some inflation numbers over the past 30 years:

We can see that real estate has fared very well. The most important number is the $0 increase in mortgage amount. The study assumed that the homeowner took a 30 year fixed rate mortgage thereby locking in the housing expense for the thirty years.

NAR then looked at inflation moving forward over the next thirty years. Obviously, if it remained the same as the last thirty years the percentage increase would be the same. They looked at a low inflation scenario and a high inflation scenario. The graph below shows the findings:

Bottom Line

We can lock in the housing costs of our primary residences and vacation homes at all time lows if we purchase today. Either would be a great hedge against future inflation.

Who says Homes aren't selling?

Home Sales Increase Across the Country

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The National Association of Realtors recently released their 2011 3rd Quarter Housing Report. In the report, they showed that combined sales of single family homes, condos and co-ops increased in EVERY state as compared to the 3rd quarter of last year. Here are the state-by-state numbers.
The next time someone says houses aren’t selling, ask them which state they live in and show them the chart.

Homeownership, As American as Baseball and Apple Pie and Baseball!

Americans Still Believe in the Value of Homeownership

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Last week, Fannie Mae released their National Housing Survey for the third quarter of 2011. They survey the American public on a multitude of questions concerning today’s housing market. Each quarter, we like to pull out some of the findings we deem most interesting. Here they are for the most recent report:

Most Important Reasons to Buy a Home

The study shows that the four major reasons a person buys a home have nothing to do with money. The top four reasons, in order, are:

• It means having a good place to raise children and provide them with a good education
• You have a physical structure where you and your family feel safe
• It allows you to have more space for your family
• It gives you control of what you do with your living space (renovations and updates)

When we talk about homeownership today, it seems that the financial aspects always jump to the front of the discussion. There is no doubt that families must justify a home purchase from a financial point of view today. However, the reasons they actually buy are the same reasons our parents and grandparents purchased their home – to create a better lifestyle for their families.

The Home as an Investment

Though most people purchase a home for non-financial reasons, everyone realizes there is a money component to homeownership. Here is what they said on this issue:

• 64% of the general population (and 69% of homeowners) believe that homeownership is a ‘safe’ investment.
• 55% believe that homeownership has more potential as an investment than any other traditional asset class.
• 68% think that now is a good time to buy a home

Rent vs. Buy

We are always interested in the difference people see in renting vs. owning.

• 63% of renters have aspirations to someday own their own home
• 70% of renters think that owning is superior to renting
• 96% of homeowners see homeownership as a positive experience (4% see it as a negative experience) while 83% of renters see renting as a positive experience (15% see it as a negative experience)
• 97% of homeowners live in a single family residence while 53% of renters live in a multi-unit building

Bottom Line

Even in these difficult times, Americans still realize the value of homeownership both from a financial and social standpoint.

The Ship Appears to be Turning

The Ship Appears to be Turning

Today, we are again honored to have Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D. — Florida International University (FIU) and Editor of the Journal of Housing Research as our guest blogger. To view other research from FIU, visit http://realestate.fiu.edu/. Dr. Johnson will also be speaking at NAR’s Conference and Expo in Anaheim later this week. For more information click here. - The KCM Crew

On October 31, CNN Money reported: “Home prices headed for triple dip”.  Reporting on information provided by Fiserv (a financial analytics company), a 3.6% fall in prices on a national basis is expected by next summer.  This will result in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index falling to 35% below its peak in 2006 and marking a triple dip in U.S. housing markets.[1]

Say it ain’t so!  Is housing set for a third dip in five years?  This depend on factors being in place to lessen the impact from market anxiety brought on by worries over a pending wave of foreclosures and the U.S. debt crisis, which we will start to hear more about shortly.

So, what are these factors and what do they tell us?  These factors are really fundamental drivers that encourage individuals to buy versus rent their personal residences.  They are sometimes referred to as housing affordability measures.  The price to income, mortgage payment to income, and a buy versus rent analysis for various markets provide strong evidence that factors are in place to encourage home ownership or favor renting depending on the resulting measurements.  In ongoing research being performed by Beracha and Johnson, these measures are at record levels in favor of buying.[2]  In fact, the price to income ratios in 23 of the 50 states are at 30-year record lows.  The payment to income ratios are at 30-year record low in all 50 states.  A buy versus rent analysis performed in 23 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas also indicates that hurdle rates (the rates at which potential buyers are indifferent between buying and renting) in all 23 cities are below 25-year average appreciation rates.  All of these results strongly favor purchasing.

What about per capita income and present day prices (relative to past prices)?  Presently, U.S. per capita income is on the rise again and has regained to the level of 2007 (roughly $40,000 per person), while prices of homes on the other hand rest at 2002 levels according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  What about mortgages rates?  Presently, 30-year fixed rates are at near record low levels.

So, let’s put this all together.  Housing is presently more affordable than at any time in the last 30 years.  While income is only at 2007 levels, home prices are even lower coming in at 2002 levels.  All of these factors set the stage for many individuals to favor purchasing over renting.  Thus, while there are grave concerns over the overall health of the economy, fundamental drivers now appear in place to staunch any further significant plunges in home prices. 

The ship appears to be turning.[3]

Endnote

[1] See http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/31/real_estate/home_prices/

[2] Beracha and Johnson (2011) on going research.

[3] This conclusion obviously assumes nothing unprecedented and catastrophic occurs such as the removal of the home interest deduction to combat the national debt or the often predicted foreclosure tsunami actually finally occurs.

Homeownership: Still The American Dream!

Homeownership: Reports of Its Death are Exaggerated

There have been a growing number of reports announcing the death of American homeownership over the last two years. Some have said we are evolving into a rental society and even challenge the long standing belief that homeownership should be a part of the American Dream. They look at the falling rate of homeownership as proof of their point. Others say that the younger generations no longer see the value in owning over renting.

However, this past week, two news items might refute these points. First, DSNews reported the homeownership rate actually increased in the last quarter; the first quarterly increase in two years.

“After falling to a 13-year low during the second quarter, the homeownership rate posted a highly unexpected rise in the third quarter, according to a Census Bureau report.”

Then, Fannie Mae released their 2011 3^rd Quarter National Housing Survey. We will cover this report in more detail on Wednesday. But we do want to mention a few findings the report highlighted. Both Generation Y (birth date mid-1970s to mid 1990s) and Generation X (birth date mid 1960s to mid 1970s) have stronger beliefs in the importance of homeownership than those of the general population.

Here are the numbers for the three major reasons to buy (as per the survey) with the percentage who believe in each reason:

1. It is a good place to raise children and provide them with a good education:

• Generation Y: 84%
• Generation X: 81%
• General Population: 80%

2. You have a physical structure where you and your family feel safe:

• Generation Y: 77%
• Generation X: 79%
• General Population: 76%

It allows you to have more space for your family:

• Generation Y: 76%
• Generation X: 77%
• General Population: 73%

Both generations also believe in homeownership as an investment. 70% of Generation Y and 66% of Generation X see homeownership as a safe investment while 64% of the general population believes so.

Bottom Line

This country’s belief in homeownership is anything but dead. The younger generations have the same if not a higher level of belief than earlier generations. As the economy improves, more people will make the move into a home of their own.

Underwater Refinance Program Expanded

by DEAN HARTMAN on OCTOBER 27, 2011

At a campaign stop in Nevada on Monday, President Obama announced an expansion of the HARP (Home Affordable Refinance Program) which would eliminate the current maximum LTV of 125%. The initiative is being looked at as a way to reward those homeowners who have been good payers of their mortgages but, because of declining home values, they could not take advantage of today’s lower interest rates.

While the actual details on the program will not be released until next month, here’s the buzz:


It will only pertain to loans currently being serviced by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
Because of the removal of the LTV cap, appraisals may not be required
With the only qualifying criteria announced being that the last six payments be on time, it is possible that income documentation may be streamlined and credit scores might be more forgiving
Fees allegedly will be reduced
Incentives may be offered to people who shorten their repayment time
It also sounds that the banks may be given some incentive by not holding them liable for the underwater portion of the new loan (a major incentive for sure).
The government is on the hook for these loans already. By lowering the payments (by offering lower rates), they will likely help these loans to continue to perform and make it less likely for the underwater homeowner to walk away.

The original HARP was expected to help 5 million families.  After two years, it has yet to reach 900,000; therefore, estimates ranging from 800,000 to 1.6 million borrowers who may benefit need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Whether the Administration is looking for purely political rhetoric points or not, my advice to underwater homeowners is too keep an eye out for the final guidelines because you just might be able to lower your payments.

Will The 30 Year Mortgage Disappear?

Will the 30 Year Mortgage Disappear?
by THE KCM CREW on OCTOBER 26, 2011


The federal government is reconsidering their involvement in the home mortgage process. They plan to still ‘guarantee’ certain mortgages. However, they appear to be redefining what they consider a ‘qualified purchaser’. They are discussing stricter lending guidelines in four different areas:

The type of mortgage
The minimum down payment
The debt ratios of the buyer
The FICO score of the purchaser
Today, we want to look at #1.

It appears that there is at least conversation about eliminating the 30 year fixed rate mortgage which has been a staple in this country’s housing industry for some time. Some in government want to duplicate the mortgage process of other countries. In Canada, for example, they don’t even have 30 year fix rate mortgages available. The vast majority of Canadian home loans have a 25 year payout but the interest rate is renegotiated every five years. If rates go down, you will wind up with a lower rate. If rates go up, you end up paying a higher rate. If you want a fixed rate mortgage for 25 years you pay a rate approximately two percentage points higher than the going rate at the time of your closing.

Would the same happen in this country? Last week, Housing Wire quoted Janis Bowdler, senior policy analyst at the National Council of La Raza:

“Without some form of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, replacements to support these popular loans, many first time borrowers will be shut out.

“Without that guarantee lenders would not offer 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, at least not at rates the average person could afford. Yes, some would be available but not for the average family but for those with a large amount of inherited wealth they can put to a large down payment.”

Why Is This Important?

You probably want to set your housing expense at the lowest number possible for the longest time possible. This may be the appropriate time to lock-in your long term housing expense as three things seem possible, if not likely, in the future:

Mortgage rates will increase from current historic lows
The 30 year fixed rate mortgage may disappear
Rents will return to historic norms of 3% annual increases 
Bottom Line

If you want to purchase a home of your own but are waiting to see where prices will go, consider what you could be giving up while you wait.